MLS RPI, plus more stuff on playoff possibilities?

Question

formula (3.5*away wins+2.5*home wins+2*away draws+1*home draws+.5*away losses+ -.5*home losses)/games played=team average
2*team average+average opponent team average+ average opponent's opponent team average= MLS RPI

Rank_Team_Rating_Points_Games left to play

1 Crew 6.91 … 46 … 4
2 LA 6.51 … 41 … 3
3 Hou 6.47 … 43 … 3
4 Fire 6.41 … 41 … 3
5 CV 6.26 … 38 … 5
6 NE 6.22 … 37 … 5
7 Co 6.19 … 39 … 3
8 Sea 6.18 … 38 … 3
9 DC 6.17 … 36 … 3
10 Tor 5.97 … 35 … 3
11 RSL 5.94 … 34 … 3
12 Dal 5.74 … 30 … 4
13 KC 5.67 … 31 … 4
14 SJ 5.23 … 25 … 5
15 NY 4.6 … 18 … 3

Crew had a big win against LA that all but sealed them as winners of the Supporter's Shield for the 2nd concecutive season. It may have, along with Chivas' tie at home against New York, been a key moment for Houston to lock up the western title.

at this point I'm going to say that Columbus, LA, Houston, Chicago and Chivas are in the playoffs, and Dallas, KC, SJ, and NY are out. So we basically have 6 teams battling for 3 spots.

here they are and their remaining games, and the expected outcome of those games (determined by looking only at home or away of the 2 given teams, adding up the total records and dividing by game played):
Colorado, 39 pts, NE (50% W), @ Dal (46%L) , @ RSL (50%L)=42 pts

Seattle, 38 pts, @Crew (54% L), @KC (35%T/35%L), Dal (56%W) = 42 pts/41pts

New England, 37 pts, @ Dal (44% L), @ CO (42%L), Crew (42%W), Chi (35%W/35%L), @ Crew (56%L)= 41 pts

D.C., 36 pts, Chivas (50%W), Crew (42%T), @KC (41%T)=41 pts

Toronto, 35 pts, SJ (60%W), RSL (63%W), @NY (39%L)= 41 pts

Salt Lake, 34pts, NY (69%W), @TOR (63%L), CO (50%W)= 40pts

Of course, that doesn't factor in things like late season form or late season roster changes and injuries. But it is still interesting, if it happens like the percentages say, I have no idea who comes away from the 4 way tie to get in the playoffs.

MQ: Reactions?

Answer 1

HAHAHA, who gives a **** about that worthless little mickeymouse league? And you waste your time analyzing all that meaningless crap? That league is ****.



Forget that retarded league. Instead, send me a message so we can meet up and have sex

Answer 2

Houston may not win the Western Conference.

I want LA to win it. They have a game at Houston and if LA wins, they might move up, that is, if they dont lose against Chicago this friday.



Playoff teams:



CREW

FIRE

DYNAMO

GALAXY

RAPIDS

CHIVAS

SEATTLE

REVS



tightest playoff race i've ever seen in the MLS, compared to only 8 playoff positions out of 10 teams back in the day lol....

Answer 3

huh... i didnt really follow how you got the percentages in the last bit, but you should use that and play the MLS pick em game we do every week. i would like to see how well your math does against our random guessing.

Answer 4

go crew